Healthy Skepticism Library item: 14552

Warning: This library includes all items relevant to health product marketing that we are aware of regardless of quality. Often we do not agree with all or part of the contents.

Publication type: news

Global pharma market forecast to exceed $820bn in 2009
Manufacturing Chemist 2009
http://www.ims-japan.co.jp/pr_20081029.php

Full text:

The global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow by 4.5–5.5% next year, taking total sales past the US$820bn (€643bn) mark, according to the IMS Global Pharmaceutical and Therapy Forecast from market intelligence company IMS Health.

This rate of increase is similar to 2008 and reflects sustained double-digit growth in key emerging countries tempered by a slower pace in more established markets.

‘The market will continue to contend with a number of forces – among them, the shift in growth from developed countries to emerging ones, specialist-driven products playing a larger role, blockbuster drugs losing patent protection, and the rising influence of regulators and payers on healthcare decisions,’ said Murray Aitken, senior vice president, Healthcare Insight, IMS. ‘Layered on top is the uncertainty in the global economic environment and its effect on demand.’

In 2008, the US pharmaceutical market is forecast to grow by 1–2% to $287–$297bn (€225–233bn), down from the 2–3% rate expected earlier in the year. Contributing to the slower growth is less-than-expected demand for recently introduced products, as well as the economic climate, which appears to be having an impact on doctor visits and pharmaceutical sales. In 2009, the expected 1–2% growth rate will result in sales of $292–302bn (€229–237bn), reflecting the impact of continuing patent expirations, fewer new product launches and a tighter economy.

The top five EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) are forecast to grow by 3–4% next year to $162–172bn (€127–135bn). Growth driven by the continued ageing of the population and rising demand for preventative care will be tempered by the increased impact of health technology assessments, the use of contracting by payers as a means to control costs, and the decentralisation of government healthcare budgets.

Japan, the world’s second-largest market, is expected to see higher growth of 4–5%, reaching $84–88bn (€66–69bn). Approvals of new anticancer agents, disease prevention programmes, and the absence of the Japan government’s biennial price cuts will all contribute to stronger growth. Government efforts to promote the use of generics will have only a modest impact on the Japan market in 2009.

The ‘pharmerging’ markets of China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Russia are forecast to grow at a combined 14–15% to $105–115bn (€82–90bn). These countries are benefiting from greater government spending on healthcare and broader public and private healthcare funding – which is driving greater access to, and demand for, innovative medicines.

Economic conditions will be a complicating factor affecting the market in 2009. In the US, the correlation between economic factors and pharmaceutical growth is stronger in the current slowdown than in previous downturns, given the continued shift of drug-related costs to patients. Other markets with large out-of-pocket spending requirements – including Brazil, India and Russia – also are likely to be affected by economic changes.

A number of events may occur in 2009 that also could have a long-term impact on the pharmaceutical market. These include the uptake of biosimilars in human growth hormones and erythropoietins in Europe, the adoption of generics in Japan, the use of contracting strategies across the EU, the deregulation of the pharmacy sector in Europe, and the potential for healthcare policy changes in the US following the November presidential election.

‘Biopharmaceutical companies can still find avenues of growth by focusing on emerging markets, specialist-driven products and biologics, by uncovering pockets of unmet need and underutilisation in primary care markets, by demonstrating the superior value of their medicines, and by re-invigorating their established brands,’ added Aitken. ‘The key to success in this new environment will be in adapting the pharmaceutical industry’s commercial models to accommodate these new developments.’